On July 2, the MS Program in Disaster Risk Management and Resilience successfully hosted an inspiring international scholar lecture titled "Accounting for Unknown Unknowns and Black Swans in Data Science." We were honored to invite Professor Robert B. Gilbert, Chair of the Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering at The University of Texas at Austin, to share his insights.
During the lecture, Professor Gilbert introduced how to incorporate unknown risks (the "unknown unknowns") and black swan events into data science thinking. He presented his research team's Decision Entropy Theory, which offers a rational and defensible way to establish non-informative prior probabilities when applying Bayes' Theorem.
Through real-world examples—including the deadly 2014 landslide in Washington State—Professor Gilbert illustrated the critical importance and challenges of accounting for unexpected events and uncertainties in decision-making processes.
The lecture was highly informative and thought-provoking, attracting active participation from students and faculty alike. Many students engaged enthusiastically in the Q&A session, reflecting their strong academic curiosity and global perspective.
We sincerely thank Professor Gilbert for taking the time to share his valuable expertise with us and all participants for their active involvement and support. This event was a great success thanks to everyone’s contributions!
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